Revealed: AFL Data Model's Analysis of David Noble
The 2022 AFL Season has been highlighted by some of the closest battles we've seen in recent years for the top four, top eight, and wooden spoon.
While coaches of teams fighting for a finals berth are generally considered to be safe, there is added pressure on coaches of clubs towards the bottom of the ladder.
Now, thanks to Stats Insider's revamped AFL Pressure Gauge, we can see which coaches are most at risk of losing their jobs based solely on data.
According to reports, David Noble's role as North Melbourne coach is now being reviewed by the club.
The Kangaroos are last on the AFL ladder with just one win in 2022, which came against a severely depleted West Coast side in Round 2.
And even though Eagles coach Adam Simpson is at the top of our AFL Pressure Gauge, the data shows that Noble's job is certainly in danger.
Stats Insider's AFL Pressure Gauge is based purely on data, without any opinion, and considers a number of factors, including coaching tenure, experience of available players, publicly reported contract status, and more.
As of now, Noble is rated lower than both Rhyce Shaw and Brad Scott were when they were sacked from North Melbourne, suggesting that his time may be up sooner rather than later.
Noble is currently in a worse situation than any coach that has lost their job in the last five years and has the second worst score out of all 17 fully contracted AFL coaches.
North Melbourne is stuck at the bottom of the ladder after 17th-placed West Coast beat Essendon in Round 15. This week, when the Kangaroos play Geelong, Noble's job will likely be even more in trouble.
According to our data, the outlook for Noble appears bleak given the Kangaroos' win-loss record, the coach's rolling contract, and the fact that North Melbourne has only twice in 2022 covered the line.
Now that Noble's performance at North Melbourne is much worse than both Scott and Shaw's, the question seems to be: How much longer can David Noble hold on?
Lowest AFL Pressure Gauge Scores for Sacked Coaches Since 2017
- Rodney Eade: -10.64
- John Worsfold: -4.43
- Nathan Buckley: -2.61
- Brad Scott: -0.85
- Rhyce Shaw: -0.53
Lowest AFL Pressure Gauge Scores for Current Coaches
- Adam Simpson: -22.50
- David Noble: -11.90
- Brett Ratten: -2.90
The number next to each coach's name indicates what their score is. The lower the score, the greater the pressure on the coach. While coaches with scores above zero are typically seen to be safe, coaches with scores below zero have been known to lose their jobs in the past.